It was eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in casino gaming and slot machine strategy development.
