Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.