Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
